Survey respondents expect a decline in the importance of college over the next decade, and many still worry about the cost of higher ed.

Nearly half of Americans expect the importance of college to wane in 10 years


Survey respondents who said they had a lower level of confidence in traditional higher education pointed to cost as their top reason

Key points:

Forty-four percent of Americans in a recent survey said that they expect traditional college to be less important in the next decade, according to a poll from College Consensus.

The poll found that trust in traditional 4-year college education is still solid, but shows some definite cracks. While more than 50 percent of respondents said they completely or mostly trust traditional 4-year college, they were still very concerned about cost and debt.

In addition to feeling largely confident about traditional college, Americans also expressed a high degree of trust in trade schools. In fact, they viewed return on investment for trade schools almost as highly as traditional college. People 45-54 years old actually considered trade school a better return on investment than traditional college–41 percent to 34 percent, respectively.

“For generations, we’ve clung to the idea that a college degree will lead to a satisfying career and financial stability,” said author Gabriel Sealey-Morris. However, in recent years, with high student loan debt and rapid inflation, there have been signs that Americans feel less confident about higher education.

In this poll, College Consensus asked average Americans their opinions on:

  • traditional 4-year degrees
  • community college
  • online college
  • trade schools
  • tech bootcamps

Respondents were asked how much they trust each form of education to lead to career and financial satisfaction–Completely Trust, Mostly Trust, Moderately Trust, Slightly Trust, or Do Not Trust at All. And for each possible answer–trusting or not trusting–respondents were asked why they felt that way.

Despite years of heavy advertising and hype, those surveyed still feel less confident about online college and tech bootcamps than they do about traditional college, community college, and trade schools.

Only 13 percent of those surveyed felt community college was the best route to career and financial satisfaction, and just 7.8 percent thought online school was the best way to go. 

Respondents still hold community colleges in high regard. Fifty-one percent of respondents mostly or highly trusted community college to lead to career and financial satisfaction.

The findings suggest that Americans are still somewhat unsure what they feel about education. As Sealey-Morris explains: “In an era of pandemic, economic anxiety, and political instability, the security of a traditional 4-year degree may look desirable to young people.” On the other hand, “other more experienced adults doubt the long-term prospects of traditional education. And it may be true that that stability is a thing of the past–if it ever existed.”

Partnering with market research firm Pollfish, College Consensus surveyed 500 Americans to ask what they think of higher education in 2024. The poll included an equal number of self-identifying men and women, as well as equal numbers from five age groups ranging from 18 to over 54 years old.

This press release originally appeared online.

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Laura Ascione
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